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央行副行长陈雨露:疫情过后,经济增长会出现快速反弹回升

公众号【新金融深度】发布于:2020-02-23 整理:无聊逛网
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2020年2月21日,中国人民银行副行长陈雨露在英国《金融时报》刊发署名文章,就新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济的影响等问题进行了分析解读。
文章指出,新冠肺炎疫情对当前中国经济带来了一定的负面冲击,但总体影响是短期的、有限的。中国经济的韧性强、政策空间充足,疫情并不会影响经济长期向好、高质量增长基本面。目前,中国政府已经采取强有力的措施防控疫情,并取得显著成效。疫情过后,前期被抑制的消费和投资需求会得到充分释放,经济增长会出现快速反弹回升。
此外,2月21日,中国人民银行副行长陈雨露在接受央视财经频道记者专访时,分别就新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济影响和中国金融体系风险做了回应,陈雨露表示,新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济影响是短期的、有限的,中国金融体系应对风险具有极强的韧性。

1、如何判断新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济的影响?
这次疫情对当前中国经济确实带来了一定的负面冲击,特别是对传统服务业和部分劳动密集型制造业。但是,根据对国内外历史经验的分析,也根据这一阶段,我国疫情防控所取得的超出国际社会预期的积极成效综合判断。我们认为,这次疫情对经济的影响是短期的、有限的。
2019年,我国GDP已经接近100万亿元人民币,对于全球经济增长的贡献率也达到了三分之一,我国人均GDP首次突破了1万美元大关。所以经济总量持续扩大,也大大增强了我国应对突发事件冲击的国家力量。
十八大以来,中国经济开始步入高质量发展阶段,经济发展的软环境和硬条件已经获得了极大的提升。所以我们相信这次疫情过后,前期被抑制的消费需求和投资需求会得到充分释放,经济增长会迅速反弹回升,全年经济社会发展目标会如期完成,中国依然会是世界经济增长最重要的推动力量。
当然,中国经济发展依然面临多方面挑战包括经济下行压力、经济结构调整的阵痛,也包括美国金融市场和世界经济的不确定性,可能给我们带来的外部冲击等等,但是中国经济增长持续,长期向好、高质量增长的基本面没有变化。
2、为应对新冠肺炎疫情对经济的影响,在货币政策方面采取了哪些有效措施?下一步有什么考虑?
疫情发生后,人民银行遵照党中央、国务院的决策部署,借鉴国际经验,立足中国实际,加大逆周期调节的力度,及时通过公开市场操作,来保持银行体系和货币市场流动性合理充裕,同时也第一时间设立了3000亿专项再贷款,对抗击疫情的重点企业,给予精准的优惠资金的支持。与此同时,人民银行还会同其他有关部门联合出台了金融支持疫情防控的30条措施,有效地发挥了政策的合力,所以这些措施对防控疫情、稳定生产,发挥了积极作用,国际货币基金组织和国际同行也对此给予积极的评价。
当前,我们宏观调控政策空间和政策工具都是充足的,稳健货币政策的基本政策取向也不会变化。我们完全有信心助力打赢这次防控疫情的总体战和阻击战,完全有能力支持实体经济恢复增长,完全有决心取得防范化解重大金融风险攻坚战的决定性胜利。
3、新冠肺炎疫情是否会加大中国金融体系风险?
经过70年的发展,我国已经成为世界金融大国。我们拥有世界最大的信贷市场和外汇储备,拥有世界第二大的债券市场、股票市场和保险市场,世界1000强银行当中,我国占了近20%。
经过两年多的攻坚战,中国的债务杠杆率、影子银行、互联网金融、金融违法犯罪、部分中小金融机构不良资产处置还有部分大型企业债务等金融风险的防范化解已经取得了关键进展和阶段性成效。中国金融体系的稳健性进一步增强。现代金融监管框架和风险防范的长效机制逐步健全,金融服务实体经济的价值追求逐步深入人心。
疫情爆发以来,中国金融市场虽然有所波动,但是整体运行平稳,金融机构和金融基础设施运转正常,特别是股票市场果断如期开市并迅速恢复平稳运行。外汇市场汇率的弹性在增大,但是由于我国国际收支和人民币的外汇供求大体平衡,金融开放和人民币国际化的积极进展,使得国际资本对人民币资产配置的需求持续增强,所以人民币汇率不会出现大幅贬值或升值。这些都表明,中国金融体系在应对风险方面已具备极强的韧性。
下一步,随着金融供给侧结构性改革的不断深入,具有高度适应性、竞争力和普惠性的现代金融体系逐步健全,金融资源配置效率的不断提高,中国金融体系会表现出更加厚重的抗风险能力,我国的金融体系既能够与世界互联互通,又能以自已独特的方式,应对现代社会各种复杂问题的挑战。


以下为《金融时报》原文:



Economic Impact ofthe Novel Coronavirus Outbreakon China Will Be TemporaryYulu Chendeputy governor ofthe People‘s Bank of China

The Chinese government is taking forceful prevention and control measures in response to the recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus,known as Covid-19.The contagion has exerted some downward pressure on China’s economy,but it will not last long.Supported by a resilient economy and ample room for policy adjustments,the People’s Bank of China expects a quick recovery after the outbreak is contained.


Growth is slowing down in the short run due to the epidemic.Transportation,tourism and offline shopping have borne the brunt.Medical care,online shopping and the internet sectors are more resilient.Consumption of non-essential goods will drop temporarily,but the long-term trend of increased and upgraded spending remains well on course.Some small and medium-sized enterprises are running at partial capacity but have continued paying wages and other expenses.They face cash flow pressures at the moment.


Although the financial markets experienced large-scale corrections when they reopened after the Spring Festival holiday,they have rebounded and stabilised.


The sound fundamentals of China’s economy in the medium and long term remain unchanged.China has strong endogenous growth momentum that is supported by the growing service sector and by innovation-driven industrial upgrading. These underpinnings of high-quality growth will not reverse due to the epidemic.


Meanwhile,China has sufficient policy space to support steady economic growth.China is one of the few major economies in the world that have maintained normal monetary policy.Equipped with a rich policy toolkit, China is capable of coping with various uncertainties.Our experience with the 2003 SARS outbreak is very telling.Thanks to well-targeted provision of credit to epidemic control and other measures, China’s economy rebounded quickly after the virus was brought under control.


This time,the Chinese government responded quickly to the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic and introduced supportive policies, including fiscal and financial measures, which have helped contain the impact of the outbreak and stabilise economic growth.


The PBoC has strengthened countercyclical adjustments of monetary policy through open market operations.This has ensured reasonable and adequate levels of liquidity and helped to boost market confidence.The PBoC,with other financial regulators, rolled out 30 policy measures to support enterprises heavily affected by the epidemic,in particular small and micro ones,private enterprises and the manufacturing sector.


The central bank also provided Rmb300bn in special central bank lending to large banks and selected local banks in Hubei and other severely-hit provinces. It provides credit support at preferential interest rates to manufacturers of essential medical supplies and daily necessities. These policies have proved significantly effective. Many SMEs seriously affected by the epidemic were given access to new bank loans. Preferential loans to a rapidly-identified list of eligible enterprises are receiving fast-track approval. Financial regulators have also ensured the stable functioning of markets by ensuring the uninterrupted operation of financial infrastructure.


In general, the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Chinese economy will mainly be in the short run. With strong and effective measures taken by the Chinese government, the PBoC expects that the epidemic will gradually be brought under control, and economic growth will rebound to its potential output level.


As the postponed consumption and investment activities resume,the economy is expected to experience a compensatory recovery. The Chinese economy is expected to recover rapidly as it is supported by a restart of factories and inventory replenishment;the most likely scenario is a V-shaped curve, which means a decline in economic activities followed by a rapid recovery, with the total economic impact relatively contained.


The PBoC will continue to implement the financial policies designed to support epidemic prevention and control efforts, including strengthening countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy,adopting structural monetary policy instruments when necessary, and ensuring stable functioning of the financial markets,which we believe will provide necessary conditions for a post-epidemic economic recovery.


Published in UK Financial Times on February 21, 2020




本文原载于公众号【新金融深度】

下一篇:拐点未到!切不可放松警惕!复工关键期尤其要注意!

导读:2月21日,江西赣州市集市开放的视频在网络上大量传播,其中视频上有许多人在没有戴口罩的情况下赶集,人流聚集情况严重。在新冠肺炎防控关键时期,这一视频随即引发了关注。 2月22日,《国际金融报》记者致电江西赣南地区当地民众进行求证,对方回复,视频内

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